lost that loving feeling - The Platt Argument (2)

12 Months and 12 days ago I wrote an article entitled 'The Platt Argument'. While sorting through and organising my back catalogue for next season's site, I read through this piece, and found to my surprise it was a very well reasoned and written argument pointing out why Platt wasn't the man for the job.

A year later I find myself week-in-week-out defending Mr Platt against these very arguments, with a firm belief that the man will come good. Bloody hell I'm fickle!

Which is why I felt the need to write another article, partly to clear things up in my own head, partly to set right some of the wrongs I feel I have done, but mainly to try and present my views to others in one go, getting it all off my chest and allowing me to sleep restfully again.

And as if that's going to happen with Forest's current situation.

Not getting promotion I can live with. Another year in the Nationwide is hardly what I'd call the end of the world in terms of the team's future. The club's future on the other hand is just slightly worrying. Failing to win promotion this season would see the club miss out on the huge TV revenue from Sky (recently quoted at around £17m per club). Since our relegation in 1999, Forest have been receiving so-called 'Parachute Money', a two-year pay-out that helps clubs survive the drop into the Football League. Unfortunately, by most people's maths, this runs out this summer, meaning we will have to make do with the frankly pitiful fees paid out to Division One clubs for their Television rights.

Now, with the club losing a stunning £105,000 a month at the moment, taking away the Sky money means even more loss. Recent newspaper reports declared that Forest's falling share prices mean the club is now only worth around £3.9m. Very worrying indeed. As a business, Forest cannot afford to carry on as they are, making either a return to the Premiership or a cut-down in expenses (ie players' wages) vital for the clubs survival.

This was why a Promotion challenge this season was so important to Forest. And at the moment, it looks as if we aren't making one. Despite brief flirts with the play-off zone, this season has mainly been about holding a high mid-table position.

The 'sack Platt' argument works on the basis that Platt's failure to secure Promotion, thus financial security, has put the club at risk. The reasoning being that Forest have played an averagely poor game since Platt took over and failed to win enough games.

I think it's fair to say that Forest have been pretty poor since Platt took charge. Only fleeting moments have showed real quality from the team: The 5-0 win over Burnley; the home win against Blackburn; the 4-game winning streak; Coming from behind to beat Barnsley at Oakwell and so on....

At these times Platt's team has showed great promise, but this has largely not come to fruition. Forest have often failed to consummate opportunities given to them, like the chance to go 3rd against Huddersfield only to lose 3-1.

But that is far from the only game that we should have won but didn't. Forest's home record is ghastly: We can't beat the good teams - Fulham, Watford, Birmingham, Bolton etc - and we can't beat the bad teams - QPR, Wolves, Wimbledon, Sheffield Wednesday - meaning that it is amazing that we are actually as high as we are.

This is mainly due to good away form in the first half of the season, picking up vital wins at Palace, Barnsley, Gillingham, Wednesday etc. But the home form has cost us dearly, and now with the away form seeming to have dried up our season has come to a stop and we've only managed to cling onto play-off hopes by our metaphorical fingernails.

Perhaps it is down to the players letting him down, not playing the way Platt wants them to. But some of Platt's tactical decisions have been bizarre to say the least and if the players aren't getting the messages then something must be going wrong in his communication skills. Platt has at times showed himself to have good motivational skills in turning a game round at half-time, but at the same time the team often look tired an uninterested during games.

With this in mind it's hard to see exactly how Platt has survived this far into the season without being sacked, let alone why he should be given another year. After all, Forest need to be hunting Premiership status and by this judgement he is failing badly.

But things start to look a bit more favourable when you put this season into the context of what has gone before it.

Platt took over a club in trouble in 1999. Much worse trouble than we are suffering from now. 3 years of the rule of Scholar and co, and the 'not-so-divine' intervention of Dave Basset and Big Ron had left Forest with no money and very little talent. The two men who were to fix this problem were Millionaire Nigel Doughty, who would provide the money, and subsequently, England Captain David Platt, who's job it was to provide the talent.

Platt's first attempts at bringing in said talent weren't particularly successful. He wasted around £2m on 3 Italians he had spotted from his own spells there, only one of which turned out be a useful signing but was injured after 3 months, never to be seen again (Matrecano has just been released from his contract by 'mutual consent'). He also signed Riccy Scimeca, who has done ok, but hasn't come close to living up to his £3m price tag. A further £1.5m was spent on Jim Brennan and around £2.5m on Stern John, neither of which have either performed consistently well or held a regular first team place.

Platt can perhaps be excused his early mistakes, after all they were his first attempts. But still, that doesn't get away from the fact that he spent around £10-12m in his first season to little effect. In fact, to date his only universally commended signing has been Jack Lester - £350,000 from Grimsby - who until his injury in November, was top-scorer this season.

That doesn't mean Platt has been a complete failure with his dealings on the market: his various loan signings have on-the-whole been a great success. Ian Wright, Robbie Blake and Ben Olsen have all set the City Ground alight with their respective influence, if it was only short-lived. Sill, they say it's better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.

This shows that Platt can be astute on the transfer market, perhaps a pity that he doesn't have £12m to spend now. Although some would say a good job that he can't waste it again.

Whether or not Platt's eye for a transfer has improved or not, it is encouraging to see that the team's results on the pitch have improved somewhat. Last season's 14th place was a frankly terrible finish for a team that 4 years previously had been competing in Europe. But it is unfair to blame Platt for this decline. The influence of the 'Bridgeford Consortium' that previously ran the club cannot be underestimated in terms of causing the downfall of Nottingham Forest. You could see the club was in a bad way when during the 98/99 season players were disappearing along with the money they were sold for, and Forest's hopes disappeared along with them. By the summer of 99 Forest had been reduced to position that even compared to today's financial circumstances was dreadful.

Platt had to halt the downward slide of a ramshackled side with more holes than Swiss cheese. Because of this, a season fighting off relegation was to be expected and in this respect Platt did a good job. Many fans might perhaps have over-estimated our chances, and when, in their view, Platt failed to deliver they saw him as letting the club down. But we must look to the plight of similar clubs to see that Forest's poor showing in the 99/00 season was to be expected: Sheffield Wednesday had similar financial difficulties when they were relegated and subsequently have only recently eased the worries of a second successive drop; Wimbledon's long-term stay in the top-flight was ended and the loss of their most talented players made an instant return unlikely; and even Blackburn Rovers, a club no-one could accuse of being run badly on the business side failed to make an impression on the promotion race last season.

By this measure David's rookie year wasn't too disappointing.

And now, Forest are finally back on an upward climb. Whether things have improved on the pitch or not, the team's league position most deffinatly has. Although the season hasn't finished yet, it is likely Forest will end up around 7th or 8th. Many will still see this as disappointing, not reaching the play-offs after all means Forest will miss out on a shot at promotion thus lose more money. But, a leap of 6/7 places from last year's finish is a great improvement, and a similar improvement next season would see Forest fighting it out at the top of the table.

Platt was given a contract of 3 years with the overall objective no doubt to have got Forest back in the top-flight and I would like to see him given a chance to achieve this objective. It's all a matter opinion of to what a suitable learning curve is for a manager. That is mine, others may differ.

The fact that it is a learning curve for Platt has angered many people, who feel that the job of restoring Forest should have been given to a more experienced man. After all, that is the main thing Platty is lacking - no-one could say that he doesn't have the background in football to become a good boss and his transfer abilities have yet to be properly realised.

But would a more experienced manager have made a better job of it?

The history books would suggest not.

I turn your attention to the man who's name strikes fear into every man who has dared take charge of Nottingham Forest since 1994. I speak of none other than Brian Clough.

To compare Platt to Clough is an extremely unfair comparison in most respects, however there is one instance where it favours the former football legend. Brian Clough's first three seasons saw Forest finish in 16th, 7th, and 3rd position in the 2nd Division. So on average, David is beating Brian so far. Not bad when you consider Clough had already won the league with Derby as well as take them to the European Cup semi-final. Perhaps Clough's experience was what made the difference in the third year, but so far it would appear that Platt isn't doing too badly as a start to his career.

But Clough isn't the only example. Martin O'Neill and Alex Fergusson are both famous examples of a manager making a bad start only to be hailed as a hero at a later date, after escaping early pressure. Both these managers' clubs are currently run away leaders of their respective leagues, but how different it might have been if the board of Leicester or Manchester United had given-in to fan pressure early on.

The trouble is, fans' expectations are a too high. The reason Brian Clough got away with finishing 16th in his first season (other than his proven track-record) was because he wasn't following Brian Clough. Forest's history now hangs heavy on the shoulders of any Forest manager along with the expectations of all the fans that come with it.

The fact that I mentioned Forest had been in Europe 4 years before Platt took over just shows how much Platt is up against it in trying to restore Forest. Short of a small miracle, Forest are unlikely to play anywhere near Europe for many years. They lost out when football's hierarchy was being decided and it will take a monumental effort for any club to break through to the 'upper-tier' of football including Forest. Fans can be grateful that we already have 2 European Cups under our belt, something that most clubs will not even come close to, but I bet David Platt isn't grateful.

It's unfortunate that Nottingham expects, and Platt could well fall short of expectations.

Of course, people's standards or not, Forest 'need' to be in the Premiership next year. For all the arguments that Platt should be given another year, the likelyhood is that he will not be. But there's no point in sacking someone if you can't get anyone better.

I would hate to see Forest sack Platt only to find no quality candidates. It's far from me to suggest that Platt was only employed because there was no-one else to take the job, but we might find ourselves in the same position that led to his recruitment. After all, good managers are a hard bunch to track down. We've been looking for nearly 7 years now without much success.

And I still believe that Platt can become a good manager. The reason's above show that he has potential, but just lacks experience. I'm hoping that he has enough now to get us up next year, and of course that he is given the chance. Unfortunately my main reason for backing this up is that there isn't really anyone else that could do a better job.

And who in their right mind would want to become Forest manager in the first place?

Not only do they have to face the mounting pressure and expectations that Platt faced, along with the added frustration of recent years and the urgent need for promotion, but they will have to do it with a club selling off it's best players to keep the receivers away from the door and no money to replace them.

Hardly a great prospect for any out-of-work super-boss. Not that there are any though. Instead Forest would have to again put their faith in someone with little exerience at this level. There's no talk of Martin O'Neill, Roy Evans or Joe Kinearr this year - the favourite is youth team coach Paul Hart.

Hart's influence on the Platt's time with the Reds has been rivalled by no man. His Championship winning youth team has been fuelling Platt's own squad all season with success stories such as Prutton, Williams, Foy, Roche and Ried, to name but a few, making their name in the first team.

The U19s squad didn't lose a game this term until they had safely wrapped up the title, proving that Hart does have a good managing credential. Whether or not he can make the jump into the top job at Forest is a question that might not be answered, but success at one level doesn't guarantee it at another. Brian Kidd's spell at Blackburn proves this.

Another pair of likely replacements are the Forest old boys - Nigel Clough and Stuart Pearce. A worryingly large majority of fans seem to think that at least one of these pair is destined to return to the club and save us, perhaps even both. But the chances of either having what it takes to get us up at the moment are very slim and I would hate to see Forest fans lose their love for my own personal hero Psycho, and the 'Son of God' if they failed. The only advantage I can see them having over Platt is being former Forest players so having the fans' backing behind them more, but how long would this last?

I can't help wondering at this point if that had Platt been a Forest player then more people would be willing to stick by him. I have to say though, I admire his character to stick with us through-out despite all the abuse he has suffered from the stands and over the radio waves from 'fans'. It takes some bottle to live through that, and perhaps he will be even more keen to prove everyone wrong and make a success of it.

For me, I can't see any benefits to sacking Platt, especially at the moment. There has been too much disruption at this "once proud" club recently and I think we're better off sticking with what we've got rather than risking more change, only to realise we've been chasing rainbows all along.

However, I have niggling doubts. Sometimes I wonder whether we might just be better off cutting our losses and giving someone else a crack of the whip. But I have taught myself that looking for the quick-fix option doesn't often work in football and that looking for an easy route can be dangerous: I was sure Big Ron would save us; certain that David Johnson (and Stern John before him) would be a goal-scoring sensation for Forest; positive that Pierre Van Hooijdonk wouldn't do to us what he did at Celtic; and so on....

Oddly enough, I was never confident in the same way that David Platt would be the man to get us up. I was surprised by his appointment, and a little wary, but willing to acquiesce through his early games, despite the disappointing start he made.

But I digress. The point is, I refuse to take the easy way out on this matter. It would be all too simple for the Forest board to put the blame on Platt and give him the boot, but then we're back where we started two years ago, minus £12m or so. It has been proved that consistency can pay off. I look back to my earlier examples of Clough and Ferguson in search of evidence. Who's to say that in 5-10 years time Platt won't be held by Forest fans in the same esteem as these two?

Unfortunately, football doesn't work like that today. It's a quick fix society that demands instant results and despises waiting. Which is bad news for Mr Platt. It might also be bad news for Forest as 'losing' Platt would mean the torture of finding a replacement and then having to start all over again, perhaps only for the same result.

Currently this is the best argument for keeping Platt, if it is a flimsy one, but consistency is something you can't buy. A new manager would want to bring in new players, to make the squad his own as Platt has done, and with even less transfer funds and perhaps more pressure from the frustrated fans. Which means even longer in the Nationwide and even longer without Premiership money coming in.

It's a downward spiral. The board can either try out a new manager and see if he can do any better than Platt, or hold on out on their current gamble and let Platt see out his contract in the hope that he has done enough to set Forest up for a promotion push.

It is the later option which I'd plump for myself. As I mentioned before, Platt's improvement graph could well keep on moving upwards next season enough for us to get promotion. Then again it might not. But we never know until we try.

There are no guarantees in this life except death and taxes, meaning we will have to sweat it out some more. I don't know if I have the right answers, but will the people who do kindly make themselves known?

On second thoughts, don't bother because football wouldn't be the same without the agonising toil and torment of not knowing what will happen next. Knowing my luck, I'll finally get this article finished and the day after Platt will have shipped himself off to Southampton. I'm not sure which would be worse: That, or reading through this in a year's time and finding that we are still stuck with Platt as we face a drop to Division 2 and I have to write yet another article on the subject. But I'll stay optimistic, and for now, I'm finished.