In The Words of Paul Gascoigne...
07/08/01 | by Alex Walker

"I never predict anything, and I never will"

Not like me to want to side myself with Cloughie's favourite, but this is a philosophy I tend to follow. Predicting the results of football matches is as pointless an activity as hoping to land your big break into Broadway musicals at the local pub's karaoke night. Also, it defeats the whole object of the game. If football was in any way predictable then no-one would bother watching it. You don't watch football to see Man United win yet another FA Cup game. You watch football on the off chance that they will lose at home to West Ham thanks to their goalkeeper not knowing the rules.

And the whole point is that these things happen. Wycombe can reach the semi-final of the FA Cup, Ipswich can challenge for the Premiership title and Forest can win the European Cup. Which is why speculating on the outcome of a game of football is such an opposition with what makes the game great.

The only possible use that predictions have, is that on the off chance that you are right, then you win all kinds of stupid pub arguments because by guessing correctly that Arsenal would be held to a one-all draw against Aston Villa you have the God-given right to claim superior footballing knowledge. For at least a week until your next Nostradamic declaration goes arse-over-tit and your powers are stripped.

However, the pre-season is a time for predictions, so against my better judgement, I am allowing myself open to humiliation as I don my 'Mystic Meg' wig and attempt to predict the forth-coming season's events. But I should warn you before I proceed, that these predictions come with a disclaimer against anyone using them as a gambling guide. In fact, if I would recommend betting against all my insights as I am not renowned for my skill with the wager.

Forest

Under David Platt's management, I was confident of a play-off place. A while ago, on a quiet, rainy Thursday afternoon I came up with a formula. Like Deep Thought's '42', it requires a great deal of understanding of the input before it will work properly, but the end result is extremely simple.

A = The manager
B = The squad
C = Bad Luck (injuries, etc.)
N = Result

(AxB)/C = N

In explanation, the manager's ability, combined with the squad's ability, divided by the amount of bad luck you experience over a season (if you have good luck all season then your C figure will be a minus), equals Forest's final position in the league.

Last season, our N total wasn't very high, hence our disappointing finish. But this is mainly down to a very high C figure bringing down the efforts of the manager and squad. I firmly believe that we have as good a squad as anyone in this league, and Platt can't have been too bad a manager or the figures wouldn't add up. So who is to say that last season, if our C figure had been more favourable, that we wouldn't have improved N greatly (i.e. gone up). Add to this, the inevitable improvements to our A and B figures, as our young manager and his even younger squad put one more year's experience under their belts, and, save another year of appalling luck, then I see no reason why we shouldn't have improved enough to make a real go of it for 2001/02.

However, now Paul Hart has taken over, although slightly more excited, I am conversely less optimistic about how high we will finish in the League. This isn't to say that Hart is a worse manager than Platt, but just that the disruption to the team will have detrimental effects on the side. Any manager, whether they have two months experience at Sampdoria, two years experience at Chesterfield or two decades experience here at Forest, if taking up a new job, will need time and resources to adapt the team he inherits to his own style of play.

As Hart doesn't have any resources to speak of, he can't bring in new players and will have to make the best of what he's got. Like I said, we still have a very good squad, but it will take them a while to adjust from Platt's game to Hart's.

Another reason that this year won't bring as much success as would be liked, is that Hart is likely to rely on youth rather than the senior pros already established. I covered this last week, but again I must state that it's one thing playing in the U19 league, another playing in the First Division. It will be interesting to see how both Hart and his youth players will make this leap, but I suspect that it might take both parties a while to find their feet.

So for my prediction. Despite the change of manager and younger team, I still think that Forest will finish higher than last season. I have seen enough promise from the two friendly games I witnessed to suggest this will be the case. But I have still have doubts. They made me change my mind from another midtable finish, to just out-side the play-offs, but I don't feel that we are ready for promotion this year.

Division One

I haven't bothered to work out any formulas for this one, just pure instinct. Man City are a strange choice for me. Their rollercoaster ride continues, but now they have a manager at the helm who, by history, either does very well or very badly. I think King Kev will probably do very well for money-spinning City, but it could just as easily go the other way. Never-the-less, I would like to see Psycho lifting the championship trophy at the end of the season.

I see this division being a lot more competitive at the top this season, without Blackburn and Fulham's multi-million sides to dominate. I think it will be a close run thing, but I've gone for Birmingham because I see them as the perennial 'also-rans' like Ipswich were a few years ago and they could certainly surprise a few people. They have experience of this division and were unlucky not to come closer last year.

Although a more competitive division, I feel there will be less team's competing. Last year there were 11 sides who had a shot at promotion come the final run down (Forest bringing up the rear of this pack). However, in this season I can't see any team below West Brom being in the running for very long. But all 9 teams in my 'top group' will be playing on very even ground. Like I said, Forest will probably miss out on the play-offs. Bookies' favourites Watford will fall short for the same reasons as Forest (new manager) and Coventry likewise will miss out as the yo-yo fashion that used to exist has long gone, making it harder for teams to bounce straight back up. Wimbledon are my choice to make the play-offs, although it looks set to be a long hard season for the Wombles as the club is torn apart behind the scenes.

My surprise package are Rotherham. They have a little known manager, are an unfashionable club and have been written off by almost everyone at the start of the season as drop-zone fodder, which makes them perfect candidates to break the odds like Ipswich and Gillingham before them.

Surprise relegation team are Norwich who are in a shocking decline after selling many of their best players. They will end up being dragged into the scrap along with favourites Walsall and Crewe.

Sheffield United

One thing that has always bothered me about Astrology, is that we are led to believe that the light from all the stars and planets we can see in our solar system takes years to actually reach us. So it's all very well being able to predict things from looking at the way Mars is crossing Jupiter's orbit or whatever, but is there really any point in predicting what is going to happen two weeks ago on Tuesday?

In a similar vain, I'm beginning to wonder if there is any point predicting this season's action. I mean, any number of unforeseeable events could take effect: Earthquakes, avalanches, hurricanes, the entire squad being struck down with flu right before the key game of the season...

So, with the likely hood of any of these disasters occurring within the next 3 days pretty slim, I'll finish this piece by predicting a Forest win over Sheffield United to kick the season, and Paul Hart's Forest career, off to a flying start. Forest will take the lead in the first half, with Jack Lester continuing his good form from pre-season. In the second half, United will equalise, but after two previously disallowed goals, Forest will win the game with 10 minutes to spare - Jermaine Jenas elevating himself further with the crucial header. After the match, Neil Warnock will make an arse out himself in his press interviews.

Of course this is total hogwash that I've made up on the spot (except the Warnock bit, which is just stating the obvious), but at least I've stuck to the number one rule: never, ever, commit yourself to a forfeit if your predictions go wrong. Saying anything along the lines of "I will eat my hat" or "I will shave my head" when making predictions is a very dangerous game and you will get what you deserve should you be so arrogant. And if you don't get what you deserve, I'll run naked through Nottingham market square on a busy Saturday night.... (doh!)