The you-know-whats
28/04/03 | by Alex Walker

So Forest are through to the play-offs for the first time in their history. Just. For a moment there it looked like we were going to do a Wolves and choke at the last mintute. Fortunately for us, Ipswich did the choking this year making things quite comfortable in the end.

Now the hard work really starts. All our team's hard work in beating the odds this season comes down to just three matches - three matches which could shape the future of this club for many years to come.

If we go up, a season in the Premiership is worth around £25-30m (depending how well we do) once TV revenue, sponsorship, increased ticket sales and prize money have been taken into account, minus whatever we spend on improving the squad and new contracts.

You don't need me to tell you how vital this money would be in not only securing Forest's long-term financial future, but also allowing Paul Hart to continue the great work he has done in his first two seasons as manager with minimum disruption.

On the other hand, failure to reach the top flight would almost certainly mean losing a number of first team players. Not only would Michael Dawson be very high on a few Premiership shopping lists, but a host of players are out of contract this summer. I hear that we have offered contracts to a number of these players already, with clauses that allow them to collect a higher wage in the Prem - surprisingly sensible move really, well done Forest! - but we still stand to lose a number of high-earners (Scimeca and Hjelde, most notable) if we aren't successful in the three play-off games. Again, you don't need me to tell you how much harder that would make next season's campaign.

Many people have criticised the play-off system (usually the losing teams' managers), but with the difference between success and failure being so great, it does raise the question, is it really fair for a club's season, and ultimately what could be their long-term future, to come down to just three games at the end of a season where they could have worked notably harder than the team they go out to?

However, as long as Forest end this season in sixth place, I'm quite happy for the play-offs to continue. I certainly agree that it makes the season more interesting as a whole, giving teams who aren't able to buy (Portsmouth) or cheat (Leicester) their way to promotion, a shot at the big time. It also means a lot more teams have something to play for, in the same way that mid-table sides in the Premiership can aim for qualification into Europe as a benchmark for success.

But the Football League's latest plans to 'reform' the play-offs to include six team instead of four have alarmed me somewhat. This season has been one of the closest for years, but Sheffield United have still managed to get 11 more points than Norwich. Does a team that finishes 11 or more points behind, deserve the same chance at Promotion?

It doesn't take much to work out what is behind this move. I'll give you a clue. It begins with 'm'. The Football League figures the only Nationwide League games 'neutral fans' watch are the play-offs. More people watching games means more sponsorship, and more play-off games means more of the 'm' word. In theory.

My own theory is that the play-offs will become such a long, drawn-out process that people will see them for the meaningless publicity stunt that they are and stop watching all together.

The same will also apply to the league process itself once it becomes apparent that the eight teams in the play-off zones will probably have their places secured by the end of March.

A few weeks ago I suggested that the top six as they were (and have remained, as predicted) agree with the rest of the league to call it a day there and then. I also suggested that all the other teams with issues still to settle could partake in a sack race to decide their fate. If the Football League gets its way, the whole damn league might as well be settled in a sack race!

As for Forest's chances in this year's play-off sack race (I refuse to metaphorise it as a 'lottery' as there must be some level of skill involved, even if Sheffield United are taking part), I think they are pretty good considering we have beaten two of the three teams we might come across this season, but at the same time pretty poor considering we have managed to lose to them all this season.