The
you-know-whats
28/04/03 | by Alex Walker
So Forest
are through to the play-offs for the first time in their history.
Just. For a moment there it looked like we were going to do a
Wolves and choke at the last mintute. Fortunately for us, Ipswich
did the choking this year making things quite comfortable in the
end.
Now the hard work really starts. All our team's hard
work in beating the odds this season comes down to just three
matches - three matches which could shape the future of this club
for many years to come.
If we go up, a season in the Premiership is worth around £25-30m
(depending how well we do) once TV revenue, sponsorship,
increased ticket sales and prize money have been taken into
account, minus whatever we spend on improving the squad and new
contracts.
You don't need me to tell you how vital this money would be in
not only securing Forest's long-term financial future, but also
allowing Paul Hart to continue the great work he has done in his
first two seasons as manager with minimum disruption.
On the other hand, failure to reach the top flight would almost
certainly mean losing a number of first team players. Not only
would Michael Dawson be very high on a few Premiership shopping
lists, but a host of players are out of contract this summer. I
hear that we have offered contracts to a number of these players
already, with clauses that allow them to collect a higher wage in
the Prem - surprisingly sensible move really, well done Forest! -
but we still stand to lose a number of high-earners (Scimeca and
Hjelde, most notable) if we aren't successful in the three
play-off games. Again, you don't need me to tell you how much
harder that would make next season's campaign.
Many people have criticised the play-off system (usually the
losing teams' managers), but with the difference between success
and failure being so great, it does raise the question, is it
really fair for a club's season, and ultimately what could be
their long-term future, to come down to just three games at the
end of a season where they could have worked notably harder than
the team they go out to?
However, as long as Forest end this season in sixth place, I'm
quite happy for the play-offs to continue. I certainly agree that
it makes the season more interesting as a whole, giving teams who
aren't able to buy (Portsmouth) or cheat (Leicester) their way to
promotion, a shot at the big time. It also means a lot more teams
have something to play for, in the same way that mid-table sides
in the Premiership can aim for qualification into Europe as a
benchmark for success.
But the Football League's latest plans to 'reform' the play-offs
to include six team instead of four have alarmed me
somewhat. This season has been one of the closest for years, but
Sheffield United have still managed to get 11 more points than
Norwich. Does a team that finishes 11 or more points behind,
deserve the same chance at Promotion?
It doesn't take much to work out what is behind this move. I'll
give you a clue. It begins with 'm'. The Football League figures
the only Nationwide League games 'neutral fans' watch are the
play-offs. More people watching games means more sponsorship, and
more play-off games means more of the 'm' word. In theory.
My own theory is that the play-offs will become such a long,
drawn-out process that people will see them for the meaningless
publicity stunt that they are and stop watching all together.
The same will also apply to the league process itself once it
becomes apparent that the eight teams in the play-off zones will
probably have their places secured by the end of March.
A few weeks ago I suggested that the top six as they were (and
have remained, as predicted) agree with the rest of the league to
call it a day there and then. I also suggested that all the other
teams with issues still to settle could partake in a sack race to
decide their fate. If the Football League gets its way, the whole
damn league might as well be settled in a sack race!
As for Forest's chances in this year's play-off sack race (I
refuse to metaphorise it as a 'lottery' as there must be some
level of skill involved, even if Sheffield United are taking
part), I think they are pretty good considering we have beaten
two of the three teams we might come across this season, but at
the same time pretty poor considering we have managed to lose to
them all this season.