A False Dawn
06/01/04 | by Matt Comley

So, here we sit, days after gaining our first win of any sort for 13 games, and not much has changed. Yes, we've got a win on the board against the lackluster Baggies, but in real terms, we're no better off as a football club than we were this time last week.

We sit in 20th position of a very poor Nationwide Division One, floundering perilously, four points from the drop. Is this good enough for a club the size and stature of Nottingham Forest? Certainly not!

There seem to be many people getting way too overexcited about Saturday. Well let's put it into perspective. Yes, we won - all well and good, but let's look a little deeper than that.

We had two shots all match - two whole shots in 90 minutes of football as the home team. West Brom, despite playing poorly, still mustered seven. They are a team low on confidence at the minute, very similarly to ourselves, in need of a boost. The only difference being, they are at the right end of the league table.

We beat a team with a penalty, in front of only 8,000 odd Forest fans, and managed two shots on goal in the whole game. I'm not saying the fact we won was luck - nothing of the sort. However, what I am saying is let's put things into perspective. This success doesn't suddenly turn us into Real Madrid or, indeed, even a side capable of pushing for First Division promotion or play-offs. What Saturday has done in my opinion, is only stave off the inevitable, and that is the departure of Paul Hart as manager.

We travel to the magnificent Stadium Of Light on Saturday to face a resurgent Sunderland side, unbeaten in 12 games at home and starting with Tommy Smith up front, finding his feet, to fire on all cylinders. I give us very little hope of gaining anything from the game and a few bad results elsewhere could put us one or two points off relegation. Is this good enough for a club the size and stature of Nottingham Forest? Certainly not.

We then entertain Reading at home in a game we have a decent chance of success in, but, judging by recent form, can anyone honestly say they fancy us? I certainly cant. Next up is Cardiff away, and you really have to say again, we'll be lucky to bring anything back from Wales. So, the next three games pit us against what should have been our promotion rivals, but as we all know, now sadly are not. Two defeats from these three games will surely guarantee Mr Hart his P45 and usher in a fresh era for the club.

I know that there are still many Hart backers, and I have no problem with that, but here, courtesy of 'Biffa' from the official forum, is a superbly accurate statistical breakdown of where this club is at the moment, and just why, in a growing number of people's views, we need a new man at the helm.

*Our performances for the WHOLE of 2003 (especially March onwards) = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*20th position = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*24 points off top spot = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*19 points off an automatic promotion place = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*14 points off a play off spot = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*4 points above the relegation zone = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Losing 11 games from 25 in the League = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Losing more League games than we have won = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Losing more home games already than we did for the WHOLE of last season = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Letting in 35 goals in 25 League games = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*4 clean sheets in 25 League games = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*11 clean sheets (including 2 against 2nd Division sides) in our last 52 games = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Scored 3 goals in our last 7 games (including one in our last 4 games) = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Conceding more goals than we have scored = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Last win in the league was 2-1 at Bradford on the 25th October 2003 = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*3 wins from our last 21 games (19 League games) = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*Points average per game 1.12 = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*We have more points than only 3 teams (Derby, Bradford & Wimbledon) = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

*At the same stage of last season:

*We had won 12 games (7 this season)
*We had drawn 6 games (7 this season)
*We had lost 7 games (11 this season)
*We had scored 40 (1.60 per game) goals (34 [1.36 per game] this season)
*We had conceded 24 (0.96 per game) goals (35 [1.40 per game] this season)
*We had 42 points (28 this season)
*We were in 4th place (20th this season)

Our record this season = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

Won = 7
Drawn = 7
Lost = 11

*Our record for the WHOLE of 2003 = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

Won = 16
Drawn = 18
Lost = 18

*Hart's record as Forest Manager = NOT GOOD ENOUGH

Won = 42
Drawn = 43
Lost = 45

*Don't blame injuries/suspensions EVERY team gets injuries and suspensions.

*Don't blame the age of the squad, most have played 50+ games and some have played 100+ games and YOU (PH) put the squad together. IF we haven't got enough old heads ITS YOUR FAULT.

*Don't tell me the squad is too small ITS YOUR FAULT.

*Don't tell me you haven't had money to spend:

Tarka = £100k FACT
Beaumont & Gardner = £150k FACT
Taylor = £500k FACT
King = £950k FACT

Total Spent = £1.7million FACT

How many clubs have had (or got) more than that to spend this season?

Add to that you have been able to give new contracts to Des, MLJ, Dawson, Reid & DJ.

Add to that you have been allowed to bring in Sonner, Gunnarsson, Stewart & McPhail (aswell as the five named above).

That means as well as spending £1.7million you have also been given the money to fund 14 new contracts.

I could go on about your tactics (or lack of them) etc etc but I'm sure you get the picture.

I think it is fair to say you have run out of BOTH time & excuses and Mr Hart it is time you did the decent thing and walked away

Pretty damning stuff I'm sure many will agree, and, in the face of cold hard facts like these, it's hard to argue otherwise.

As a person I'm sure Paul Hart is a nice, affable guy. However, that doesn't mean he's good enough to be manager of this football club, and for the good of it, he should go and go now. As the title of this article says, don't let this false dawn draw you away from the bigger picture.