The sun rises in the East
31/01/06 | by Alastair Gunn

I have been reading recently about the effect of the EU expanding its borders to include Eastern European countries. It means nothing to me, barely aware of the collapse of the Berlin Wall when it happened. To those older than the 1980’s it seems to mean an awful lot. Who would have thought, barely 10 years ago, that Crewe would be the home to at least 3,000 Poles?

Politics, of course, or sociology even, is not the realm of LTLF. Football is. What interests us in the Middle West is not their labour skills or propensity for seeking pastures anew in the Mecca of the British rail system (if train spotters went on pilgrimages, they would surely go to Crewe… and if the Lord is truly benevolent, many would stay there). It is their national football teams.

Managing, for a brief interlude, to digress from my penchant for African football, I noticed that the Euro 2008 qualifying groups have been drawn. To be held in Austria and Switzerland, it is the first time that the tournament has headed East(-ish) since 1976, when Yugoslavia played host to Czechoslovakia’s win on penalties over West Germany. It represents to me a high mark in the rise of Eastern European football.

Consider the respective challenges our home nations face. Discounting minnows, England have to surpass Russia, Israel and, World Cup semi-finalists in 1998, Croatia, one of the first former Soviet bloc nations to remind Old Europe that heritage does not win football matches.

The first of course was Bulgaria at USA 1994, defeating Germany and cementing Stoichkov as a bona fide part of the household lexicon. Then the Czech Republic in 1996. Football came home and lots of Czech players came with it. We learnt the names of Berger, Nedved and Poborsky. Ten years on, and we can pronounce their names too (granted that we had five years to experiment with Srnicek by then). Ten years on, and they are the main obstacles to the Republic of Ireland qualifying from their group, given the uncertain status of Germany who occupy the same group. An interesting battle for fourth place in the group will see Wales narrowly overcome Slovakia. Or not.

Pity also poor Scotland. Once upon a time, a group containing the tartan army, les croques-monsieurs and la dolce vita would have been interesting. Indeed, the same is true today. Except, not for the Scots. Challenging the French and Italians will be the Ukrainians who have a much better chance of upsetting the establishment than the kilts. Scotland must be satisfied if they take fourth place over Georgia.

It almost makes one envious of Northern Ireland; not a familiar sentiment for me. With the temperamental Spanish and the beatable Danish, Sweden are the only team that the dragon-slayer slayers will be certain to lose against. The closest they have to Eastern European opposition is Latvia, which does not count because no-one knows where it is (and they’re crap).

All of which makes me realise, Eastern Europe really matters. It seems appropriate during the African Nations to recollect Pele’s prediction that an African nation would win the World Cup by 2000. With retrospect (or an ounce of intelligence at the time) we can see that political instability, economic poverty and relative scarcity of real talent on the continent made the prediction foolish even if we admired the optimism.

He would have been wiser to hold his tongue. Since Cameroon made the quarter-finals in 1990 the continent has suffered droughts, famines, civil wars and worst of all, egos, not least from its footballers. Eastern Europe has suffered freedom and Shevchenko. I am yet to hear of Shevchenko balking at the burden of representing his homeland. Not very Yakubu.

It would be incredible now to contemplate a World Cup without an Eastern European nation making a mark. In 1994 we saw Bulgaria make the semi-finals, in 1998 it was Croatia, 2000 was Turkey’s turn. 2006 will see Poland, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Croatia and Serbia & Montenegro competing. One of them is bound to progress. Meanwhile Africa provides world football with Togo and Angola as compensation for the complacency of Senegal and Nigeria respectively. Even respectable Ghana debut as a direct consequence of the ineptitude of South Africa’s FA.

I therefore make the following prediction: Germany 2006 and Euro 2008 will be won by Eastern European nations. Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia & Montenegro, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Bulgaria, I don’t know which. It certainly will not be any of the host nations. It most certainly will not be one of the home nations either. My money is on the Ukraine.