Predicting the patterns
09/06/04 | by Alastair Gunn

With the opening ceremony of Euro 2004 this weekend (not to mention the small matter of France v England, or Les Coques v Les lads, as I tend to think of it) one question dominates the nation. And it's not "is Coques really the French for cockerels?"

Can England win in Portugal? Over the last week we have been given two opportunities to see what we have to offer. A dependable draw against the impressive Japan raised many question marks. Six of the best against Iceland has allayed some of those fears.

Sadly, Iceland won't be playing in Portugal this summer (unless they are touring the local Sunday league scene, about their level). So thrashing a side show hardly means that England are well prepared to dominate the centre stage, as they must if words are to be matched by deeds.

After all, wherever one can spot strength in the England side, one can name a problem directly associated with it. For example, we have Michael Owen, a goal scorer par excellence. However, we have never found him an appropriate partner. Either the confidence/talent/ability-to-use-feet has been insufficient, or the chemistry lacking in catalyst, which put paid to Heskey and Beattie respectively.

The classic is our midfield. Gerrard, Lampard, Scholes, Beckham… and all I can think of is that Alanis Morissette song, 'Ironic': so many spoons - top quality spoons at that - but no real knife. It seems that Eriksson has ditched Nicky Butt. That's fantastic, but it's hard to see how this midfield will balance itself, let alone assist the defence.

Indeed, our defence has two 50+ capped players, with the experience to build a solid foundation upon. However, Campbell is not injury free and Gary Neville was shown up abysmally against Japan for their goal and will need to reclaim his nous very quickly. Similarly, Ashley Cole will have to translate his Arsenal form into something more than we have seen from him yet in an England shirt. High on athleticism but also high on needing to use it, he has yet to face the best attacks in the world and I fear for him when he does, with no natural protection in front of him.

David James. Enough said.

The real extent of these short-comings, from the dodgy keeper to the arthritic midfield that creaks whenever it plays together, cannot be assessed by having seen the warm-up games. France will tell us whether we have a chance of taking their crown and it would be foolhardy of me to claim prior knowledge of how we will perform. So here goes!

France have warmed up well for the tournament and on Sunday went 18 games unbeaten with a 1-0 win over the Ukraine, albeit lacking Shevchenko. Apparently Zidane scored a beauty after 88-minutes. 

No surprise there and I expect something similar to happen this Sunday. The French team reeks like camembert of resilient quality and after the World Cup they have a motive to stick the knife in. We can only hope that they suffer an injury (Trezeguet is struggling) because their subs bench looks worse than Real Madrid's. Should Saha or Henry suffer, Fulham reject Marlet, Arsenal reject Wiltord or Sidney Govou (whose name rhymes with "who") are ready to pounce. Everton and Leeds reject Dacourt backs up Makelele and Vieira in midfield.

Injury crisis aside, I cannot see another first match upset. After Senegal, the French will not be tricked twice. We might sneak a draw and if we do I will see it as a good result upon which we can proceed to lesser obstacles. In fact, if we win, we may fatally underestimate the Swiss and Croats. Herein lies the crux of the matter. Qualification from this group will depend on how well we deal with the winnable games. If we don't win them, we won't qualify. It will not depend on how much "Les Coques" piss on us. We can lose to France on Sunday and then meet and beat them in the final next month.

The pattern of international tournaments is notoriously easy to predict. The effects of the pattern are not. The home nation always outdoes itself (Portugal is my tip to win, by the way) and there are always upsets. Denmark 1992, Bulgaria 1994, Czech Republic 1996, Croatia 1998, pretty much everyone in 2002 and who shall it be in 2004? Which galactico will succumb to a banana skin?

This is what I am most looking forward to this summer. I am looking forward to a bit of unfancied, East European egg landing flat and true on the exposure-rich Western nations' faces. Just because we don't know their names yet, doesn't mean we will not remember them in years to come (did Iordan Letchkov mean anything to you in 1993?).

I give you the words of Bolton's Greek star Stelios Giannakopoulos. I hope that they are worth remembering at some point during the tournament: "We are stressed playing in the opening match. But we are not as stressed as the Portuguese team. They are the favourites with everything to lose, playing their first match against Greece which really has nothing to lose."

Every side in this tournament is capable of getting stressed, and every side is capable of overcoming that. Expect Spain and Holland to join up with Iceland for a Sunday league kick-about after the group stages. And rule number one of all international football: never, ever write off Germany!