An argument for selling Robbie Earnshaw
In recent weeks there have been several rumours concerning Forest’s attempts to sign Peter Whittingham from Cardiff City. One rumour has it that Forest have offered Robbie Earnshaw in part-exchange. Given that he is Forest’s top goalscorer for the last two seasons, and has netted 34 goals in 73 games for the club, is this madness of the first order, or perhaps a masterstroke?
The answer to this question is not straightforward. Swapping a striker for a midfielder makes direct comparison quite difficult. The best way to approach this is probably from a tactical angle.
In recent seasons, the offside law has changed and is now even more in favour of the attacking team than it was before. As a result, teams defend deeper. This has a significant impact on the shape of the team. With greater distance between a team’s defenders and forwards, the midfield runs the risk of being too far from one or the other (or possibly both). Consequently, we have seen teams move from what is referred to as ‘three-band formations’ (e.g. 4-4-2) to ‘four-band formations’ such as the 4-1-3-2. Even the 4-5-1/4-3-3 hybrid that has been widely adopted does not have a flat midfield and is probably better represented as closer to a 4-1-2-3, 4-3-2-1 or possibly even a 4-1-2-2-1.
Now what has all this got to do with Robbie Earnshaw? Well, as the midfield splits, it becomes necessary for one of the strikers to drop deeper (assuming the switch is from 4-4-2 to the new formation) in order to prevent the midfield being overrun, leaving a lone striker. Now Robbie, for all his goalscoring qualities, lacks the height and physical strength to play up front on his own, where he would be expected to compete in the air, hold up the ball and provide an ‘out ball’ when the team is under pressure.
At the beginning of last season, Billy Davies left Earnshaw out of the team – particularly away from home – and clearly experimented with one of the more popular four-band formations, the 4-2-3-1 in several matches. The 3-2 home win is a prime example, with the team lining up as follows:
Camp;
Gunter, Morgan, Chambers, Cohen;
McKenna, Majewski;
Garner, McGoldrick, Tyson;
Blackstock.
Once Earnshaw got back amongst the goals in the autumn, he forced his way back into the side, and Davies reverted to a 4-4-2.
At Championship level, and with Forest possessing one of the stronger squads in the division, this switch back to 4-4-2 didn’t make much difference. Particularly at home, when able to dominate possession high up the field, Earnshaw was heavily involved and scored regularly. However, away from home he was less effective. By my reckoning, only three of his seventeen goals last season were scored on the road (against Ipswich Town, Middlesborough and Preston North End). However, should Forest reach the Premier League, they would be harder pressed to dominate games – and more importantly possession – and Earnshaw’s style of play means that he would contribute little to the team when Forest were without the ball.
My suggestion is that exchanging Earnshaw for Whittingham would allow Billy Davies to move permanently to a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Whittingham and Anderson on the wings, and also accommodating all three of McKenna, Cohen and Majewski in central midfield. Signing an attacking left-back (a mirror image of Gunter for example) and playing Whittingham and Anderson on the ‘wrong’ wings would give them license to cut inside and mean that Blackstock wasn’t isolated in the middle when balls are played into the box.
This more consistent formation would also give Davies a greater degree of flexibility without having to change the system too much. McGoldrick, Garner and Tyson can all play as part of the attacking midfield three, and so can still feature in the team despite the obvious problems presented by playing a lone striker at a club with five strikers on its books. Also, away from home, or when on the back foot, various players can drop deeper or change positions without major changes to personnel. The 4-2-3-1 can easily become 4-4-1-1 (with the wingers dropping back in line with the deeper central midfielders) or McKenna could drop back into an anchor-man role, and Mejewski fall in line with Cohen to give the V-shaped 4-5-1 we commonly see the likes of Chelsea play. Finally, if one of McGoldrick, Garner or Tyson were playing, it could be switch to 4-4-2 without the need for any substitutions.
On top of the tactical reasons there are a couple of other fairly convincing arguments for making this exchange. Firstly, the financial one. While Nigel Doughty clearly isn’t short of money or unwilling to invest, if Davies followed the tactical route I have outlined above, Earnshaw would become a bit-part player most often deployed from the bench. As one of the highest-paid players at the club, he would become a very expensive impact substitute, and one who almost certainly wouldn’t be needed in every game. My gut feeling would also be that Whittingham would be on significantly lower wages than Earnshaw currently is (given Cardiff’s ongoing financial problems and their slightly smaller stature), and therefore we would be able to offer him an attractive pay-rise and still reduce the wage expenditure. (I will freely admit that this is pure conjecture on my part and could easily be shot down by someone with more information at their disposal.) Secondly, there is the simple reality of nature and the statistics from last season: we would be losing a 29-year-old who scored 17 goals last season and replacing him with a 25-year-old who netted 25 goals in 51 appearances from midfield.
I should stress, as my final point, that this thought process is not born of a dislike of Earnshaw. Far from it. In fact, I would go as far as to say that he is probably my favourite member of the current squad. I feel that his goals, his flamboyant celebrations and obvious enjoyment of scoring make him a valuable part of the matchday experience, and his presence in the team helps create a positive atmosphere among the fans, which almost certainly transfers to the team in general. In an ideal world, Billy Davies would sign Peter Whittingham and somehow fit him into the same starting line-up as Earnshaw, and we could have the best of both worlds. However, I am speaking with my heart here. Billy Davies’ job is to think with his head not his heart, and make the tough decisions for the benefit of the club. Should Whittingham arrive and Earnshaw leave, and Forest gain promotion as a result, I imagine any sadness at Earnie’s departure would be quickly forgotten.
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Some very well thought out points Marshy. Ones that I had not considered and provoked me to think of the times last season Earnie has had to drop deep and gave away penalties/free kicks.
Like many, I think Earnie is great & really loves this club (Albeit not as much as Cardiff) But thanks to this article I can see some benefit in trading him in for Whittingham. I do believe we need a better target man than Dexter however – if this were to be the case.
tell you what – that took some reading , but god it makes sense once you’ve taken it in – well done for a cracking article
Interesting views, however, would you honestly trust Tyson, Mcgoldrick and Garner to support Blackstock and fire us into the top 6? Very questionable. Earnie is a natural goalscorer and Doughty would be able to afford the combined wages of he and Whittingham. However, rather than selling Earnshaw to fund a Whittingham assault, maybe it would be an idea to get the wages of Adebola, Lynch, and regrettably Mcgugan (loan perhaps?) off the wage bill. A futher note to add, I believe Whittingham would command a huge wage increase if reports of a Burnley and Bolton move are to be believed. Good article though and I can see your points about Earnshaw.
What a load of rubbish, earnshaw dispelled the myth last season that his ‘lazy’ and doesn’t offer you anythin. The reason he was ‘ineffective’ away from home last season is because he was never started, it’s difficult to affect the game from the bench. I do agree that forest should look to play 4-2-3-1 as 4-4-2 can look dated, as England have found out, in fact, so did we against Blackpool at the CG, 4-2-3-1lends itself to more fluid passing football when it’s played properly with running off the ball that’s difficult to track, however, I do not believe you need ‘a big man’ up top to play it, David villa has played it for Spain, barca play it with or without ibrahimovic, using, messi, pedro and iniesta, as do Argentina with messi, tevez and higuin, leaving milito the big man out. If you look back to forests play off defeat at the CG earnshaw actually held the ball up better than dex, he jus used his body to shield the ball, earnie CAN play that role if we’re playin our football in the right areas and passin it to feet, which we’d all like to see.
I completely agree with you conrad! get rid of blackstock, he’s lazy and considering the size of him his heading ability is poor. Earnshaw is much more affective in a positive way and links up well with players like majewski. his hold up play is much better than blackstock as blackstock is just too goofy and lazy! i think Billy Davies should give garner the chance, he’s a natural goal scorer unlike tyson, mcgoldrought and adebola!
Good article, but on balance I think it would be far too risky. Forest’s defence and home attack record was good enough for promotion but the away goal scoring was lower half of the table standard. Looking at the combined goal tally of our top 2 we were way off the pace. For that reason, and because you can’t guarantee a goal machine elsewhere will repeat the succes instantly, forest cannot afford to lose earnie goals and hope they can be replaced and exceeded. We have a bird in the hand. We need to go for one in the bush AS WELL not instead.
Nice to be thinking about REAL football again though, eh?
i think you could play 4231 with earnie, decent crosses from whittingham and anderson into earnie would be good. raddy and earnie play well together as well. through a friend i know one of the players and he says for ability earnie is the best there by a mile. you dont sell quality.
with cohen and mckenna in the middle, ando and whittingham wide you could then have raddy playing off earnie. small forward line i admit but my god the football would be good and on the deck. the movement and ability to play through the middle as well as wide would scare everyone in our league. if we really need the cash to bring him in then a better option would be to cash in on cohen and stick moussi alonside mckenna.
Yeah, I take your points. I would like to stress, as I hoped I had made clear at the end of the article, that I would be very reluctant to sell Robbie. I was merely playing Devil’s Advocate and trying to come up with a convincing argument for selling what many consider to be our star player. This was purely an exercise in hypothetical thinking – rather than a firmly held opinion – and an attempt to answer the question, woudl gaining Whittingham be worth losing Earnshaw?
James Cooper: No, personally, I wouldn’t trust Tyson and the others to fire us into the Premiership. I do think McGoldrick has more to offer than he’s shown. However, Billy persisted with Tyson throughout the season despite some mediocre displays (whenever I saw him), and also showed a willingness to leave Earnie out. I was really trying to see things as Billy might.
Conrad: I didn’t mean to imply that Earnie is lazy. I don’t think he is, but he’s far from the ideal target when we’re under the cosh and need an out-ball. I agree that he can hold the ball up when the ball is on the floor, but can you see Wes playing a 60 yard clearance to feet? Given Forest’s tendency to go long when under pressure, I can’t see the ball sticking with Earnie as well as it can with Blackstock or possibly Garner.
Cardiff in peace.
Just to correct your poster on a few things.
Our financial problems have been drasically reduced in the last few months with a Malaysian billionaire taking 35% stake in the club and many debts turned to shares etc..
We aren’t flush, but don’t NEED to sell. personally I reckon the bid will have to be over £2.5m
So Whittingham isn’t going to be a cheap option.
Also, don’t be under the impression he’s on low wages -half the reason our finances got in a mess was because that f’ckwit ridsdale handed out money like confetti. Whittingham could well have to be made one of our top earners just to match his current deal.
Finally we’ve laready got 2 strikers in the earnshaw mould – Chopra who got more goals than him last year i believe and mcCormack who got more the year before, but was kept out by Chopra.
Although Earnie is a hero down here (hat-tricks for us in every division of the football league, league cup and fA Cup and international for Wales !), we don’t at this moment need a player of his type.
Good luck for next season – except against us.
Great article, there will be many plus points for swapping Earnshaw for Whittingham he will give us a lot more width and solve the problem of not having an out and out left winger he will also contribute goals but for me Earnshaw is by far the best striker we’ve got, he’s great at linking up play and a fantastic finisher if we get rid of him for Whittingham for me we wouldnt have a very good strike force at all he showed last season the partnership between him and Blackstock worked well Earnshaw on average gets 15 goals + per season and last season he was our top goalscorer by a far distance having not plyed as many games as Blackstock. For me we should try and keep earnshaw and pay a bit more for whittingham and then we will see more goals from earnie blackstock and whittingham will contribute lots which will mount a serious promotion challenge
Some very good points, but you fail to mention squad depth?
Having Earnie, and a Happy Earnie could be the difference next season, allowing is to change to that 4-4-2 when injuries do and will occur. Tyson is not capable and black stock plays to deep. Earnie is bang on, allowing us options that our competitors wont have