Quarter-final predictions
20/06/02 | by Alastair Gunn

Here at last we are, on a "rest day". Two days is clearly enough to make the heart grow fonder, as I can't get my mind off the World Cup. Here I give my predictions for the teams left in the competition.

England

Obviously, we all want to see England do well. And after my initial scepticism, we do have a very real chance of doing well. Rio Ferdinand has been a rock at the back, with able support on the flanks from Mills and Ashley Cole, both of who have offered much needed support going forwards.

I say much needed because this is where the problems start for England. Beckham is still not fit, not fully anyway. His crossing ability has gone unused this tournament because he has not been able to create space down the right against fitter, quicker left backs. Whilst it is possible Roberto Carlos may leave space behind him tomorrow, he has the pace and fitness to outdo Beckham and Mills on the right.

On the other flank, Sinclair has done well. However, it is important to remember that he is only a good Premiership player, not an international one. He does not have enough experience, and perhaps talent, to make it at this level. Although he is the best and only left midfielder in the squad, that position remains a weak link, especially against Cafu and probably Juninho.

In midfield, we don't have the pace to break down the organised core of the Brazilian team, Gilberto Silva and the three defenders behind (or often in front of) him. Up front, he can threaten, but with a very young strike force not exactly firing on all gears, one would expect Brazil to nullify our threat. If we get forced into long-ball counter-attacks as we were against Sweden and Argentina towards the end, Brazil will have a field day.

Finally, Sol Campbell is a weak link. His hopeless mistakes against Nigeria were covered by Ferdinand, but against a similar, better strike force, his mistakes will prove more costly.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit

Brazil

Not a team I fancied to do well before the tournament, due to their lousy qualifying record. With a record worse than Holland's, Brazil can count themselves lucky to have been in an easy qualifying group, an even easier group and a walkover second round against some ageing half-decent Europeans.

Yet they do have a good side. Ronaldo may become Brazil's top ever World Cup scorer this tournament. Rivaldo is touted by some as the best player in the world. Ronaldinho will be a match for any defender. As if that was not enough, Roberto Carlos, Cafu and Juninho make a pretty handy six-pronged attack.

Their back four are reasonably solid and also offer great distribution to their front players. However, Scolari's critics (mainly ex-Brazilians) do have good cause for concern. This tournament has exposed Brazil's defence vulnerabilities. Belgium should have scored, Costa Rica did, twice.

Any team that can counter-attack with pace and width has a chance of breaking them down. Their attacks have been productive because their have been so many. Against a structured team, they will have trouble breaking them down. This Brazilian team is more talented than the one at France '98 in my opinion, but is nowhere near the quality seen before that. Without the pressure of expectation, they have exceeded expectations. But they will have to start working hard to get past the semi-finals. Only their determined win against Turkey shows signs that they can do this.

Prediction: Semi-final failure

Turkey

Deserved a win against Brazil but then drew with Costa Rica. Turkey is still an emerging nation with a superb future to them. They have outstanding players in Rustu, the keeper, Basturk and occasionally Hasan Sas.

Their striker, Hakan Sukur has looked poor, but is capable of hurting teams. Their win over Japan shows a determination and hunger within the side that has been missing from too many teams. However, they lack the defensive strength (they are playing Alpay for Christ's sake) and possibly the discipline to make it past Brazil in the semis - if they get there.

Prediction: Quarter final exit (Euro 2004 should be in their sights)

Senegal

Senegal's story has been told quite thoroughly since their shock win over France. Yet still no-one expects Senegal to win. This surprises me. The team is strong, quick, very determined and disciplined, mentally and tactically thanks to the work of Bruno Metsu.

His 4-5-1 formation looks defensive, and indeed it is, until Senegal get the ball, at which point the entire midfield flies up the pitch, looking to score. And score they have, with Salif Diao scoring my goal of the tournament, and Pape Bouba Diop getting three. Henri Camara's role as a second striker has also proved successful.

Intriguingly, El Hadj Diouf has not scored. Metsu has used him as a foil for his midfield, and it has worked a dream. I think it will continue to work well, and Senegal's style of play is exactly that which could catch the Brazilians out. If the Senegalese can beat Turkey, I would tip them for the final, and with a worst case scenario being Spain, by that point Senegal would be my favourites. I expect Pele's prediction of an African team to win the World Cup before 2000 to be proved as only a couple of years out.

Prediction: World Champions? I bet you heard it here first, and probably last.

USA

The USA has taken me at least by surprise. Perhaps I should have seen it coming. They have a better league than a number of teams at the World Cup, not to mention the most athletic and wealthy population from which to pick players and resources. Hosting the World Cup in 1994 may just have started a process that will lead to the USA being a top player in the World scene.

They also play just the right way to beat Germany, using width to knock superb crosses into their capable front men. McBride has captured my eye, and the Miroslav Klose look-alike may be the more effective of the two when it comes to the crunch. Their tactical solidity will make it hard for Germany's workmanlike attack to have an effect.

The midfield is where the USA look quite weak, and Hamann may be able to run the game. But if Bruce Arena can get his players to play to their best, they should be able to overcome a weak side.

Losing to Poland was disappointing, and nearly costly, but having beaten a previously impressive Mexico side in the second round, the USA come into the match on good form, and ought to continue that. Making a mark in the semis will be difficult however, and the limits of the squad ought to be exposed by then.

Prediction: Semi-final knock out

Germany

As much as I would love to see the beloved Germans set up an England-Germany final, I doubt either side has the quality to get that far. We knew before the tournament that Germany were low on quality, having beaten them 5-1 with a young and only moderately promising side.

Of course, cometh the Cup, cometh the Germans, as they raise their game at the right time. But topping a deceptively easy group and sneaking past Paraguay has not been as difficult as it may look, and most of their goals have come from Klose's head.

Their midfield has only one name that makes you cringe - Ballack - unlike the glory years of Muller, Effenberg et al. If they meet a team with real defensive quality they will struggle. Germany ought to be the next big heads to roll.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit

South Korea

The celebrations looked eerily like some sort of Nuremberg rally, and their President looks very Stalinesque. I have no doubt that Korea are benefiting from a little FIFA bias in the refereeing appointments, though talk of a large scale corruption are a bit beyond me.

All it will take to knock these lucky hosts out is a composed and confident European nation, or a set of experienced, quality officials. Ahn Jung-Hwan can obviously play a bit, but outside of a few competent fellas probably drugged out of their skins if China is anything to go by, South Korea offer nothing more than a scary reminder of how much Communists like their sport, and bearded women.

It will be a genuine travesty if the worst team in the tournament, let alone the quarter-finals overcome Spain, at last showing a bit of World Cup form.

Prediction: Quarter-final exit, to be followed by the mysterious disappearance of Ahn Jung-Hwan after his third consecutive penalty miss. Korean President later found to have set up labour camps for captured Japanese tourists presumed dead after weird air incident on the way back from the World Cup.

Spain

The perenial underachievers were one of the teams I fancied to make the semis at the beginning of the tournament, and I stick by that. Raul is the best striker at the tournament, Hierro probably the second best defender (behind Rio).

Their squad seems to lack real stars outside of that, with Guardiola injured, but Valeron, Mendieta, Morientes and Xavi will be relishing the chance to guide Spain to the final. South Korea is a difficult match only because Spain have a history of making things difficult from themselves, and their semi-final opponents, whoever they are, will put up a fight.

But the Spanish have the luck of Irish now, and I can not see them being halted by the talentless Koreans or the limited ability of the USA. I would also fancy them against the Germans. Senegal has the talent to beat them though.

Prediction: Runners up