Quarter-final
predictions
20/06/02 | by Alastair Gunn
England
Obviously, we all want to see England do well. And after my
initial scepticism, we do have a very real chance of doing well.
Rio Ferdinand has been a rock at the back, with able support on
the flanks from Mills and Ashley Cole, both of who have offered
much needed support going forwards.
I say much needed because this is where the problems start for
England. Beckham is still not fit, not fully anyway. His crossing
ability has gone unused this tournament because he has not been
able to create space down the right against fitter, quicker left
backs. Whilst it is possible Roberto Carlos may leave space
behind him tomorrow, he has the pace and fitness to outdo Beckham
and Mills on the right.
On the other flank, Sinclair has done well. However, it is
important to remember that he is only a good Premiership player,
not an international one. He does not have enough experience, and
perhaps talent, to make it at this level. Although he is the best
and only left midfielder in the squad, that position remains a
weak link, especially against Cafu and probably Juninho.
In midfield, we don't have the pace to break down the organised
core of the Brazilian team, Gilberto Silva and the three
defenders behind (or often in front of) him. Up front, he can
threaten, but with a very young strike force not exactly firing
on all gears, one would expect Brazil to nullify our threat. If
we get forced into long-ball counter-attacks as we were against
Sweden and Argentina towards the end, Brazil will have a field
day.
Finally, Sol Campbell is a weak link. His hopeless mistakes
against Nigeria were covered by Ferdinand, but against a similar,
better strike force, his mistakes will prove more costly.
Prediction: Quarter-final exit
Brazil
Not a team I fancied to do well before the tournament, due to
their lousy qualifying record. With a record worse than
Holland's, Brazil can count themselves lucky to have been in an
easy qualifying group, an even easier group and a walkover second
round against some ageing half-decent Europeans.
Yet they do have a good side. Ronaldo may become Brazil's top
ever World Cup scorer this tournament. Rivaldo is touted by some
as the best player in the world. Ronaldinho will be a match for
any defender. As if that was not enough, Roberto Carlos, Cafu and
Juninho make a pretty handy six-pronged attack.
Their back four are reasonably solid and also offer great
distribution to their front players. However, Scolari's critics
(mainly ex-Brazilians) do have good cause for concern. This
tournament has exposed Brazil's defence vulnerabilities. Belgium
should have scored, Costa Rica did, twice.
Any team that can counter-attack with pace and width has a chance
of breaking them down. Their attacks have been productive because
their have been so many. Against a structured team, they will
have trouble breaking them down. This Brazilian team is more
talented than the one at France '98 in my opinion, but is nowhere
near the quality seen before that. Without the pressure of
expectation, they have exceeded expectations. But they will have
to start working hard to get past the semi-finals. Only their
determined win against Turkey shows signs that they can do this.
Prediction: Semi-final failure
Turkey
Deserved a win against Brazil but then drew with Costa Rica.
Turkey is still an emerging nation with a superb future to them.
They have outstanding players in Rustu, the keeper, Basturk and
occasionally Hasan Sas.
Their striker, Hakan Sukur has looked poor, but is capable of
hurting teams. Their win over Japan shows a determination and
hunger within the side that has been missing from too many teams.
However, they lack the defensive strength (they are playing Alpay
for Christ's sake) and possibly the discipline to make it past
Brazil in the semis - if they get there.
Prediction: Quarter final exit (Euro 2004 should be in their
sights)
Senegal
Senegal's story has been told quite thoroughly since their shock
win over France. Yet still no-one expects Senegal to win. This
surprises me. The team is strong, quick, very determined and
disciplined, mentally and tactically thanks to the work of Bruno
Metsu.
His 4-5-1 formation looks defensive, and indeed it is, until
Senegal get the ball, at which point the entire midfield flies up
the pitch, looking to score. And score they have, with Salif Diao
scoring my goal of the tournament, and Pape Bouba Diop getting
three. Henri Camara's role as a second striker has also proved
successful.
Intriguingly, El Hadj Diouf has not scored. Metsu has used him as
a foil for his midfield, and it has worked a dream. I think it
will continue to work well, and Senegal's style of play is
exactly that which could catch the Brazilians out. If the
Senegalese can beat Turkey, I would tip them for the final, and
with a worst case scenario being Spain, by that point Senegal
would be my favourites. I expect Pele's prediction of an African
team to win the World Cup before 2000 to be proved as only a
couple of years out.
Prediction: World Champions? I bet you heard it here first,
and probably last.
USA
The USA has taken me at least by surprise. Perhaps I should have
seen it coming. They have a better league than a number of teams
at the World Cup, not to mention the most athletic and wealthy
population from which to pick players and resources. Hosting the
World Cup in 1994 may just have started a process that will lead
to the USA being a top player in the World scene.
They also play just the right way to beat Germany, using width to
knock superb crosses into their capable front men. McBride has
captured my eye, and the Miroslav Klose look-alike may be the
more effective of the two when it comes to the crunch. Their
tactical solidity will make it hard for Germany's workmanlike
attack to have an effect.
The midfield is where the USA look quite weak, and Hamann may be
able to run the game. But if Bruce Arena can get his players to
play to their best, they should be able to overcome a weak side.
Losing to Poland was disappointing, and nearly costly, but having
beaten a previously impressive Mexico side in the second round,
the USA come into the match on good form, and ought to continue
that. Making a mark in the semis will be difficult however, and
the limits of the squad ought to be exposed by then.
Prediction: Semi-final knock out
Germany
As much as I would love to see the beloved Germans set up an
England-Germany final, I doubt either side has the quality to get
that far. We knew before the tournament that Germany were low on
quality, having beaten them 5-1 with a young and only moderately
promising side.
Of course, cometh the Cup, cometh the Germans, as they raise
their game at the right time. But topping a deceptively easy
group and sneaking past Paraguay has not been as difficult as it
may look, and most of their goals have come from Klose's head.
Their midfield has only one name that makes you cringe - Ballack
- unlike the glory years of Muller, Effenberg et al. If they meet
a team with real defensive quality they will struggle. Germany
ought to be the next big heads to roll.
Prediction: Quarter-final exit
South Korea
The celebrations looked eerily like some sort of Nuremberg rally,
and their President looks very Stalinesque. I have no doubt that
Korea are benefiting from a little FIFA bias in the refereeing
appointments, though talk of a large scale corruption are a bit
beyond me.
All it will take to knock these lucky hosts out is a composed and
confident European nation, or a set of experienced, quality
officials. Ahn Jung-Hwan can obviously play a bit, but outside of
a few competent fellas probably drugged out of their skins if
China is anything to go by, South Korea offer nothing more than a
scary reminder of how much Communists like their sport, and
bearded women.
It will be a genuine travesty if the worst team in the
tournament, let alone the quarter-finals overcome Spain, at last
showing a bit of World Cup form.
Prediction: Quarter-final exit, to be followed by the mysterious disappearance of Ahn Jung-Hwan after his third consecutive penalty miss. Korean President later found to have set up labour camps for captured Japanese tourists presumed dead after weird air incident on the way back from the World Cup.
Spain
The perenial underachievers were one of the teams I fancied to
make the semis at the beginning of the tournament, and I stick by
that. Raul is the best striker at the tournament, Hierro probably
the second best defender (behind Rio).
Their squad seems to lack real stars outside of that, with
Guardiola injured, but Valeron, Mendieta, Morientes and Xavi will
be relishing the chance to guide Spain to the final. South Korea
is a difficult match only because Spain have a history of making
things difficult from themselves, and their semi-final opponents,
whoever they are, will put up a fight.
But the Spanish have the luck of Irish now, and I can not see
them being halted by the talentless Koreans or the limited
ability of the USA. I would also fancy them against the Germans.
Senegal has the talent to beat them though.
Prediction: Runners up